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沪深300指数3200点之下值得长线买入

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昨日股指快速走低,本栏认为导致股指大幅走低除了房地产新政的影响外,部分原因是配合股指期货,股指的下跌是为了给股指期货找一个消灭升水的理由。从昨日股指期货快速回落的情况可以判断,股指已经回调结束,未来股指和期指将出现同步上涨的行情。

  昨日股指的走低,从客观上加速了期指向下修正升水的走势,期指的表现明显弱于股指,5月合约还一度出现对现货的贴水。据测算,5月合约最大跌幅已经超过300点,持有多单的投资者每手亏损已经超过9万元,故昨日期指尾盘的加速下跌,与多方投资者信心受挫平仓出局有关,直至收盘前,5月合约才在空方平仓盘的推动下回到略微升水的水平上。

  昨日本报5版的文章《期指回归套保亟待机构入场》中的读者小王曾表示,当股指需要走低的时候,它就一定能够走低。昨日股指的暴跌在一定层面上验证了小王的判断。收盘后小王则表示,由于股指短期跌幅过大,他已经平掉了全部空单,计划今日在5月合约开仓做多。

  我无意吹嘘小王的投资水平,只是想对股指做一个比较客观的判断。本栏一直认为,上证综指3000点之下是值得长期买入的区域,对应沪深300指数则为3200点之下(为了配合股指期货的运行,今后本栏将尽可能多以沪深300指数为主),投资者在目前的点位上已经不宜继续做空。

  股指的下跌,是为了帮助期指空方投资者逼迫多方投资者认输。同样,在多方投资者认输之后,自然还会出现新的分化,会有新的多方和空方出现,而由于散户投资者中多方投资者已经被大幅削弱,而做空的散户投资者由于获利丰厚刚刚成为养肥的羔羊,下一步正是大鳄享用空方羔羊的绝好时机。所以本栏判断,未来股指将会逐渐止跌回升,不排除出现快速反弹的可能。

  股指和期指的关系没有主次,只有需要,资金会成为联系两个市场的绝佳纽带。在股指期货市场,博弈的力量将会远超价值投资,即使未来套利资金广泛出现,这种博弈的力量也会存在,只不过那时候投机客将推动股指和期指同步涨跌,而不是现在这样需要分别调控。

  作为没有条件参与期指的投资者,可以选择一些有潜在题材、股价还不是很高的股票逢低介入,当股指未来好转,很多题材股仍将继续活跃。
本主题由 管理员 admin 于 3/29/2012 11:28:07 AM 执行 移动主题 操作
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